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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."