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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.